The project addresses concepts from probability and statistics. Simulation is a quantitative method most often used to solve problems with events the occurrence of which is stochastic. Simulation constitutes an approach to the solution of operational problems in which we put parameters of a real problem situation of some system into a mathematical model which, on the basis of the values input, determines possible states that the system can accept. The simulation itself does not give a concrete solution to the problem, rather the results constitute information that is used as support in decision making.
This piece, instead of with a complex mathematical method, shows vividly by an experimental method the possible situations and possible solutions for a very complex dynamic problem: Sailor Ingwar has had excessive commerce with a bottle of red wine and is now trying to find his yacht Freya moored in the harbour.
A Monte Carlo Simulation is a name that was introduced in 1940 by John von Neumann (in Hungarian Margittai Neumann János Lajos) and Stanislaw Marcin Ulam as a method for the solution of determinist problems related to random numbers. The method was developed during World War II for the solution of complex problems in the construction of the atomic bomb. It is applied for deterministic problems that are hard to resolve, complex phenomena that are not well enough explored and statistical phenomena that have no analytical resolution.
The installation consists of a small model of the city of Zadar (the peninsula). From the starting point (the cellar bar Na po ure /At the half hour) the sailor Ingwar (represented by a small steel ball) endeavours to reach his yacht Freya. Since he has imbibed a remarkable quantity of red wine, the directions in which he moves are unpredictable, and the earth rocks beneath his feet. Since he can reach the Freya in various directions, but does not have to reach it, it is interesting to track these movements and the performance records. The ball roams around the streets of the model and most often ends up anywhere but at the yacht.
The model of the city is made of extruded polystyrene foam. The whole base, with three motors controlled by a fortuitous interference generator changes its position from the horizontal to slight slopes in all directions, which results in the movement of the steel ball in accidental directions. Each street that ends at the quay is equipped with an electromechanical counter that counts up the times the ball passes the point. There is also a counter mounted at the exit from the bar and there is one on the yacht. By a comparison of the states of the individual counters, we can decide whether Ingmar has gone overboard with the red wine or whether Zadar has too many outlets to the sea.
